What is Negative Survivorship Bias?
Negative survivorship bias is a cognitive error that happens when we focus only on the failures and ignore those who succeed. This bias can lead us to make inaccurate assumptions about what works and what doesn’t by looking only at the “survivors.” For instance, if you only pay attention to the businesses that failed in a certain industry, you might wrongly conclude that the industry is doomed.
How Does Negative Survivorship Bias Work?
- Focus on Failures: When we see only those who didn't make it, we start to think that the likelihood of failure is much higher than it actually is.
- Ignoring Success: Successful outcomes are often overlooked, leading to a skewed perception of reality.
- Generalizing Mistakes: By emphasizing failures, we may inaccurately generalize that similar actions will always lead to failure.
Real-Life Examples
- Investing: If you only read stories about investors who lost their money, you might assume that investing is a bad idea. However, many people successfully grow their wealth through investing.
- Startups: Many startups fail, but there are also countless examples of startups that thrive. If we only hear about the failures, we might discourage new entrepreneurs from trying.
- Health and Fitness: If we focus only on people who tried diets and didn't lose weight, we might conclude that diets never work, ignoring those who have successfully lost weight.
Why is Negative Survivorship Bias Important?
- Influences Decisions: This bias can affect personal decisions, like career choices or health strategies, leading to unnecessary fear or avoidance.
- Affects Industries: In business, it can prevent innovation. If entrepreneurs only hear about failures, they may choose not to start new ventures.
- Shapes Perceptions: It's easy to think that failure is the norm when in fact there are many success stories that go untold.
Ways to Combat Negative Survivorship Bias
- Seek Diverse Stories: Look for success stories in addition to failures. This helps build a more balanced perspective.
- Analyze Data: Use statistics to understand the broader picture rather than anecdotal evidence.
- Talk to Experts: Engaging with those who have experienced success can provide valuable insights and counter the bias.
Conclusion
Negative survivorship bias is a prevalent issue that impacts how we view success and failure. By recognizing this bias, we can better navigate our decisions, both personally and professionally. It's crucial to seek a balanced view that includes both sides—failures and successes—to make more informed choices.